Prepare for Spike in Oil Prices Over Russia & Georgia “State Of War”

Discussion About Future Global Energy Crisis aka Peak Oil

by Simon Tay

WASHINGTON, DC (RUSHPRNEWS) AUGUST 25, 2008— These are definitely extraordinary times, with recent events turning for the worst. We can remember this month August 2008 as not only the opening of the Beijing Olympic but also the beginning of a war between Russia and Georgia.

According to CNN & Yahoo News:

Georgia’s parliament Saturday approved a request by President Mikhail Saakashvili’s to impose a “state of war,” as the conflict between Georgia and Russia escalated, Georgian officials said.

– Both side are declaring the other as the aggressor and tried to give justification for the conflict either to defend or liberate the city of South Ossetia.

The confusion while reading the full article linked above shows various propaganda techniques used by both side.

Georgia said

Saakashvili (Georgia’s President) accused Russia of launching an unprovoked full-scale military attack against his country, including targeting civilian homes
Georgia said the overall death toll would be closer to 100.
Georgia said that Russia with a population of 146 million, is trying to destroy his country of 4.6 million people, he said, comparing it to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Georgian troops stationed in Iraq said the 2,000 soldiers there will be withdrawn from Iraq “very soon.”
Saakashvili told CNN Friday that the troops were needed in Georgia to defend against the Russian military
Russia said
Russian officials insist their troops were protecting people from Georgia’s attacks on South Ossetia, a breakaway Georgian region that borders Russia.
“Russian Interfax news agency” claim heavy casualties (about 2000)
Russians said they had “liberated” the city
Russian paratroopers will “implement the operation of enforcing peace” on both sides.
Russian President Said “Our peacekeepers, along with reinforcement units, are currently conducting an operation to force the Georgian side to accept peace,”
Russian Interfax said 15 peacekeepers were killed in the Friday attack by Georgian troops.
Russia charged that Georgia had targeted its peacekeepers stationed in the region.
Russian officials said more than 30,000 refugees have left South Ossetia and crossed into Russia over the past two days, since fighting began, Interfax reported.
– A top Georgian security official said 10 Russian aircraft had been shot down and 30 Russian tanks destroyed.

Film of the body of one pilot was shown on Georgian television along with the identity card of another who the report said was shot down and captured.

According to Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Russia is also the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter and the third largest energy consumer.

Russian Oil production may already been peaked in the recent news that Russia’s oil production is coming down.

Georgian geographical location is very sensitive as it is sandwiched between Russia and the rest of the middle east.

As we see the map on the right (click to see a larger version), the rest of the middle east includes most of the large oil producing countries such as Turkey, IRAQ, IRAN, Saudi Arabia and etc.

Remember just last week on the 5th of August, there is a oil pipeline blast in Turkey? Bloomberg just reported that it will take 2 weeks to repair the pipeline.

It’s is not known at this moment who is responsible for the pipeline explosion yet.

Looking at the map, this whole region is mostly related to OIL & GAS supply and the war had just started right in the middle of it.

According to Wikipedia, 12000 of Georgia’s armed forces were trained by U.S. military instructors. Some of these troops have been stationed in Iraq as part of the international coalition in the region, serving in Baqubah and the Green Zone of Baghdad.

In October 2005, the unit was replaced by the 21st Infantry Battalion. Soldiers of the 13th “Shavnabada” Light Infantry Battalion wear the “combat patches” of the American unit they served under, the Third Infantry Division.

2000 of these troops are going to be withdrawn “pretty soon” to defend against the Russian military.

From all the details that I had dig up shows that American might be implicated in this war as you can see that the Georgia’s troops in Iraq now is under the American Unit…with possible “combat patches” of the American Unit.

It’s essential that Georgia should not fall under Russia as Iran is just below Georgia.
American military bases is in Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Georgia, Turkmenistan and the entire US Fifth Fleet is stationed within proximity of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coastline.

Russian air strike to “liberate” Georgia city of South Ossetia may in fact may break the “chain” of U.S. military presence surrounding Iran.

Now, Britain & US had been caught off guard by this sudden outbreak of war had to rush into Georgia to broker peace talks and call for a ceasefire.

This is not an easy task as the Pentagon maintains up to 200 military trainers in Georgia, which is now a close ally with troops in Iraq. But Bush has also been seeking Russian support for his efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear programme.

This is a major road block for U.S. to seek sanctions against Iran, this may lead to a major disaster if it’s not handled properly.

In Conclusion, be prepared for the spike in oil prices coming Monday when the market opens up for trading.

Be prepared is the key to survival but don’t panic.

Disclaimer: I will not be responsible for any loss of assets, property or lives resulted by the use of the above information.

NEWS SOURCE: SG Energy Crisis

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